UK commercial property returns keep rising in November

Posted On Monday, 23 December 2013 14:37 Published by
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Commercial property returns rose to 1.5% in November, their highest monthly return since March 2010, according to the IPD UK Monthly Property Index.

Phil TilyCapital growth drove the improving returns, with the values of commercially held shops, offices
and industrial units rising by 0.9% for the month overall, which is the highest monthly increase in property values in over three years. Income returns remained steady at 0.5%.

Comparatively, returns were -0.9% for equities and -0.8% for bonds over the same period (MSCIUK, JP Morgan 7-10 year).

Commercial property values have now risen for seven consecutive months, by a cumulative 2.9%.

Real estate returns have improved markedly across 2013 in line with improving economic confidence and growth. In the 11 months of the year so far, commercial property has delivered a cumulative total return of 8.6%, considerably higher than the 2.3% delivered across the entirety of 2012.

Rising property values has been the main driver of these improved returns, a result of steadily
improving investor sentiment and growing occupier demand. Capital values fell by 4.3% in 2012, but have increased by 2.3% so far across 2013.

Critically, from mid-2013, commercial property values started to improve in many regional
property markets, at first mainly in the South East, but spreading across the rest of the country
after Q3. Almost all regional markets measured by IPD are now seeing growing property values.

Although performance in Central London has been relatively steady for the last two years, it has been these regional improvements that have underpinned the growing headline level property returns.

However, the growth is far from uniform, and the performance of retail assets continues to lag
those of offices and industrial units. Offices returned 1.9% in November, and industrial units 2.2%, driven by capital growth of 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. Comparatively, retail units delivered just 1.0%, and saw an increase in values of only 0.4%.

Retail returns have slowly improved over 2013, with headline level capital growth again emerging in August, but still difficult trading conditions in the sector have led to lacklustre occupier demand and as a result more cautious investor sentiment around the value of assets.

While rents rose for offices and industrial units by 0.4% and 0.2%, they continued to decline for retails by 0.1%. Only shops in central London and retail warehouses saw rental growth in
November, with regional high street shops and shopping centres suffering declines.

Phil Tily, Executive Director & Head of UK and Ireland, IPD, said, "2013 has seen a real
turnaround in the performance of commercial real estate, with growth slowly creeping further
afield from London during the second half of the year, alongside rising economic confidence, and this has driven the rising returns."

"While the office and industrial sectors have benefitted from growth in the economy and
subsequent business expansion and confidence, ongoing shocks to the retail sector are continuing to impact on occupier demand, sentiment, and as a result, returns."

 

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