Household Sector Debt-Service Risk rises slightly in the 2nd quarter of 2017
Examining recent years’ of improvement in both the Household Sector Debt-to-Disposable Income Ratio (decline) as well as the Household Sector Net Savings Rate (rise), it would appear that weak consumer confidence levels in a stagnant economy are encouraging households as a collective towards a more cautious financial approach.
A further weakening in building activity on the cards despite a slight rise in the FNB-BER Building Confidence Index
After declining by 11 points in 2Q2017, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index improved by 3 index points to 35 in 3Q2017.
2nd Quarter 2017 new mortgage lending growth slows once more
2nd Quarter 2017 SARB New Mortgage Lending data, released in the latest SARB Quarterly Bulletin, showed a renewed slowing in the year-on-year growth rate into negative territory in the 2nd quarter, after a briefly positive growth rate in the 1st quarter of 2017.
Compared with the pre-2008 National Housing Bubble, the Western Cape is seen as “strong”, but not “booming”
Periods of strong housing market price growth can often be a cause for concern..
The FNB Holiday Town House Price Index continues its recent slowing growth trend
The FNB Holiday Towns House Price Index, comprising towns (both coastal and inland) whose housing markets are deemed to be strongly driven by holiday home demand, has had a reasonably good run since around 2013.
Foreigner residential buying perceived to have slowed slightly in South Africa, perhaps in part rand-driven and in part "junk status" driven
Recently, there have been hints emanating from our FNB Estate Agent Survey that foreigner demand for local residential properties may be declining.
Building confidence registers sharp fall in Q2
After reaching its highest level in more than a year of 43 points in 1Q2017, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell sharply to 32 in 2Q2017.
National price realism deteriorates in both SA and Namibia, but in SA it’s more in the Coastal regions, while Gauteng is solid
It is important to understand that, due to significant resistance by home sellers to house price declines, in times of economic and residential demand slowdown the residential market can often move away from market equilibrium price.
Gauteng residential regions….and a look at the City of Joburg…..a very different world to Cape Town at present
Our 1st quarter 2017 Gauteng Sub-Regional House Price Indices show mediocrity in terms of house price performance to be widespread.
Cape Town’s high weighting in the new FNB Luxury Area Value Band House Price Index may explain this index’s “outperformance” in recent years
FNB area value band house price index performances.
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