> Populations of the nine member cities have grown considerably since the mid-1990s, at an average annual rate of 1,92%. This growth is significantly slower than growth over the past 50 years (3.09% annually between 1907-1996).
> Between 1996-2005 total annual population growth was below 2%. However, the three Gauteng metropolitan centres showed higher-than average growth rates with Johannesburg growing annually at 2.5%, Ekurhuleni at 2,49% and Tshwane at 2,17%.
> The slow-down in growth rates (both city and national) can be ascribed to reduced fertility levels over the last decade, and the impact of HIV/AIDS related mortalities.
Population Age Dynamics
> There has been a consistent increase between 1996 and 2005 of city residents aged between 15-34 years, with a corresponding decrease of residents aged 65 years and older.
> The future age composition of the country’s city population will probably be determined by the impact of Aids deaths, which will affect different age groups in different ways.
Population Concentration
> Johannesburg (with 2 003 persons/km²), eThekwini (1 379 persons/km²), Cape Town (persons/1 207/km²), Ekurhuleni (1 313 persons/km²), Tshwane (938 persons/km²) and Nelson Mandela (561 persons/km²) having the highest overall city population concentrations in 2005.
Population Dynamics: Average Household Size
> Between 1996 and 2001 the average city household size decreased notably from 3,96 to 3,58.
> The 2005 average city household size is estimated at a mere 3,31.
> The largest estimated mean household size was for Msunduzi (4,05), followed by Cape Town (3,71), eThekwini (3,67) and Nelson Mandela Metro (3,53), all with average household size below three people in 2005 was Johannesburg (2,90).
QUICK QUOTES
Sithole Mabanga, Chief Executive Officer, SA Cities Network
“Even with the relatively slow city population growth, the rapid decline in city household size will result in serious implications for municipal service-delivery demands and for the sustainability of our cities.”
“South African society is undergoing a massive internal transformation. We are seeing entirely new household arrangements emerging. Municipalities are beginning to grapple with this trend as they recognise the growing urgency and importance of boosting city infrastructure.”
