Penny Sukhraj

Five massive shopping complexes are to be built on the Joburg-Centurion strip as developers and retailers plan to cash in on South Africans' love of shopping.

One of the complexes will be the largest in the country, twice the size of Sandton City.

But despite the upbeat sentiment of the investors and retailers, questions have been raised about the wisdom of the proposed developments, with critics saying retailers may be getting ahead of themselves.

They question whether there is enough of a market to support the complexes.

Five tracts of land, totalling more than 400 000m², have been set aside for "mixed-use" developments, with plans for shopping centres surrounded by commercial and residential zones.

They are situated along the heavily burdened N1 and N3 highways and the provincial N14 to Pretoria.

But the proposed high-speed Gautrain, between Pretoria and Johannesburg, is intended - in addition to relieving traffic congestion - to provide a market of "consumers on the move" for the mega-malls.

Needs

And Midrand Chamber of Commerce president Dee Reuvers says: "One needs to look at Midrand to realise the increase in the number of customers whose needs must be met in their own area."

The planned mega-malls are:

Zonk' Izizwe, near Grand Central Airport in Midrand, the largest of the five proposed centres.

Old Mutual Properties has proposed the development of 250 000m² of space, including restaurants, entertainment and arts and crafts districts, two family hotels, a residential area and theme and office parks.

Old Mutual managing director Ian Watt said the timing of the development was linked to the upgrading of the N1 and the proposed Gautrain project. The additional movement of people was expected to increase consumer traffic by up to 30%.

"Gautrain's planners have indicated all along that their preferred location for the Midrand station aligns with the Zonk' Izizwe project. Clearly, they need to know that the project will be built as they cannot have a station in the middle of an open piece of veld," he said.

"A project of this size could take five to seven years to complete. However, the core parts could be completed in three to four years."

Greenstone Mall, a 50 000m² regional centre on land previously occupied by chemical giant AECI, in Modderfontein.

AECI subsidiary Heartland Properties has sold the land to the Sasol Pension Fund, with rights for a regional shopping centre, other retail space and 4 000 residential units.

"We're convinced there is sufficient distance between the shopping centres in the area to permit this kind of development," said Heartland Properties sales manager Mike Walsh. "The take-up we're experiencing for residential units on our land is enough to justify such a regional centre."

Ivan Pachonick of leasing agents JHI said earthworks for phase one of the mall had started and completion was set for October 2006.

Interest in space had been received from more than 80 retailers, he said.

A 45 000m² site alongside the N14, between Woodmead, in northern Johannesburg, and Midrand's Allandale.

The developer, Investec Property Group, would not commit to how long it would take for the project to get off the ground, saying the details would be finalised within the next two weeks.

A "village-style" centre at the N3-R25 Modderfontein interchange. Developers Retail Africa say their more modest, 10 000m², open mall is based on sound market research.

CEO Hannes Pickard said the mall would be a gateway site to communities in Edenvale and Kempton Park.

Commitments had been made by Pick n' Pay, Clicks, Truworths, CNA, Dros and Woolworths, which planned a 1 000m² store.

A centre in Buccleuch, on the former Wits University property Frankenwald, 80 000m² of prime development land.

Middle-class

The executive director of the South African Council of Shopping Centres, George Skinner, expressed doubts as to whether all five centres would be successful.

"Shopping centres by their very nature cater to areas of relative affluence. The quality of merchandise and the mix of tenants will be determined by the demographics of the surrounding community. Ideally, this should be middle-to upper middle-class," he said.

But Midrand, for example, was sparsely populated, with only about 100 000 people falling within that primary trading category and having the requisite buying power, he said.

Skinner said retailers often got carried away in a boom time such as the present.

"This might well lead to developments that are later regretted.

"What worries me is how they can justify so many developments along the same belt. But, ultimately, the market forces will decide."

Property analyst Erwin Rode said: "Individually, they might be viable but together, they might represent a serious over-supply, especially if they come on-stream simultaneously."