Instead, despite an accommodative fiscal policy, a generous monetary stance and a weak Rand supporting export and household incomes (on balance) and encouraging import displacement, events keep conspiring against us.

Growth remains barely 2.5%, formal jobs shrank slightly in 2012 and at best won't do much better in 2013.

Mining is by now an old saw, given the deep output declines last year and the only partial comeback since then. With work stoppages and strikes remaining a feature, and unions yet to smoke the peace pipe as turf battles still rage, mining output is likely to keep disappointing this year as last year's negotiations drag on and a new round of wage negotiations looms.

It is encouraging, though, that the mining unions are at least talking to each other through the good offices of the mining minister and the employers, even if turf battles are still raging on most sites.

Meanwhile in mid-February basic iron and steel saw some 35% of its capacity knocked out due to a fire at the Vanderbylpark steel complex. With basic iron and steel having a 7.7% weight in manufacturing, it suggests a 1.5% year-on-year drop in manufacturing output from this source in 1Q2013.

Good news is that the company reportedly hopes to have this steelworks back to full production by late April (at the earliest?), probably limiting the 2Q2013 suppression of manufacturing output from this source to 1%.

This translates into 0.1%-0.2% year-on-year GDP suppression from this source in 1H2013 if other facilities could not take up the slack (and with inventories already very low due to company cost saving drives suggesting stepped up imports or simply late deliveries to customers, further extending the GDP hit in 1H2013).

Meanwhile the alarm has sounded regarding this year's maize harvest. Though farmers have planted a larger acreage than last year, the rains and the planting were late, but the real problem is with needed follow-up rains.

The maize-growing interior has been experiencing heat wave conditions, and a critical moment is upon us, with further rains needed to save the harvest. A few more days/weeks of the conditions experienced last week and this year's crop could be history.

It has been some years now since nature has hit our maize-growing agriculture hard. Given the cyclical nature of the climate, such occasional hits are to be expected despite many technical precautions aimed at limiting the impact of such an occurrence.

Potentially we could be looking at a -0.5% to -1% hit to GDP growth from this source, but only if the rains stay away for too long.

Then there is the delay in the commissioning of Eskom's new Medupi power station due to labour stoppages. This particular project has had its share of delays, thereby prolonging the electricity constraint hobbling especially our heavy industrial plant.

This may not imply a decline in output, but it suggests a continuation of a serious capacity constraint for mining and heavy industry into 2014.

The actual and potential output disasters enumerated here are individually bad enough on their own, but together they could offer a sizeable hit to GDP output and growth.

When considered alongside struggling export producers, weak private business confidence weighing on new fixed investment and inventory rebuilding, and further erosion of real household disposable income by higher inflation and formal job disappointment (shrinkage rather than expansion), it should make us wonder where the decimal point will settle in GDP growth forecasts.

It makes the question all the more poignant whether income tax increases in this week's budget would be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Overseas the argument has been raging for some years now that one doesn't weigh down a weakening economy with government austerity measures. So far, our government has kept this reality at bay, but it is getting late in the day, with the economy slow at best, and especially mining tax collections heavily disappointing now, yet with global rating agencies breathing down our collective necks to get our national finances in order.

Yet most economic forecasts continue to perk up the growth decimals for "next" year (always "next" year of late), even though the basis for such hopes remains doubtful.

One day we should again have a strong surging cyclical recovery, especially with so much idled production resources crying out to be put to work again.

But it may still be some time for this to happen.

We need an old-fashioned commodity boom to trigger it, or proactive government action in creating our own luck by unleashing an infrastructure boom.

Both possibilities always just lurk below the surface, but the timing appears to be wrong, as much globally as locally. Reason enough perhaps to hibernate a little longer and not to get too excited about next year's growth decimals?

Source: Cees Bruggemans, Consulting Economist

Instead, despite an accommodative fiscal policy, a generous monetary stance and a weak Rand supporting export and household incomes (on balance) and encouraging import displacement, events keep conspiring against us.

Growth remains barely 2.5%, formal jobs shrank slightly in 2012 and at best won’t do much better in 2013.

Mining is by now an old saw, given the deep output declines last year and the only partial comeback since then. With work stoppages and strikes remaining a feature, and unions yet to smoke the peace pipe as turf battles still rage, mining output is likely to keep disappointing this year as last year’s negotiations drag on and a new round of wage negotiations looms.

It is encouraging, though, that the mining unions are at least talking to each other through the good offices of the mining minister and the employers, even if turf battles are still raging on most sites.

Meanwhile in mid-February basic iron and steel saw some 35% of its capacity knocked out due to a fire at the Vanderbylpark steel complex. With basic iron and steel having a 7.7% weight in manufacturing, it suggests a 1.5% year-on-year drop in manufacturing output from this source in 1Q2013.

Good news is that the company reportedly hopes to have this steelworks back to full production by late April (at the earliest?), probably limiting the 2Q2013 suppression of manufacturing output from this source to 1%.

This translates into 0.1%-0.2% year-on-year GDP suppression from this source in 1H2013 if other facilities could not take up the slack (and with inventories already very low due to company cost saving drives suggesting stepped up imports or simply late deliveries to customers, further extending the GDP hit in 1H2013).

Meanwhile the alarm has sounded regarding this year’s maize harvest. Though farmers have planted a larger acreage than last year, the rains and the planting were late, but the real problem is with needed follow-up rains.

The maize-growing interior has been experiencing heat wave conditions, and a critical moment is upon us, with further rains needed to save the harvest. A few more days/weeks of the conditions experienced last week and this year’s crop could be history.

It has been some years now since nature has hit our maize-growing agriculture hard. Given the cyclical nature of the climate, such occasional hits are to be expected despite many technical precautions aimed at limiting the impact of such an occurrence.

Potentially we could be looking at a -0.5% to -1% hit to GDP growth from this source, but only if the rains stay away for too long.

Then there is the delay in the commissioning of Eskom’s new Medupi power station due to labour stoppages. This particular project has had its share of delays, thereby prolonging the electricity constraint hobbling especially our heavy industrial plant.

This may not imply a decline in output, but it suggests a continuation of a serious capacity constraint for mining and heavy industry into 2014.

The actual and potential output disasters enumerated here are individually bad enough on their own, but together they could offer a sizeable hit to GDP output and growth.

When considered alongside struggling export producers, weak private business confidence weighing on new fixed investment and inventory rebuilding, and further erosion of real household disposable income by higher inflation and formal job disappointment (shrinkage rather than expansion), it should make us wonder where the decimal point will settle in GDP growth forecasts.

It makes the question all the more poignant whether income tax increases in this week’s budget would be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Overseas the argument has been raging for some years now that one doesn’t weigh down a weakening economy with government austerity measures. So far, our government has kept this reality at bay, but it is getting late in the day, with the economy slow at best, and especially mining tax collections heavily disappointing now, yet with global rating agencies breathing down our collective necks to get our national finances in order.

Yet most economic forecasts continue to perk up the growth decimals for “next” year (always “next” year of late), even though the basis for such hopes remains doubtful.

One day we should again have a strong surging cyclical recovery, especially with so much idled production resources crying out to be put to work again.

But it may still be some time for this to happen.

We need an old-fashioned commodity boom to trigger it, or proactive government action in creating our own luck by unleashing an infrastructure boom.

Both possibilities always just lurk below the surface, but the timing appears to be wrong, as much globally as locally. Reason enough perhaps to hibernate a little longer and not to get too excited about next year’s growth decimals?