It is important to understand that, due to significant resistance by home sellers to house price declines, in times of economic and residential demand slowdown the residential market can often move away from market equilibrium price.

Our 1st quarter 2017 Gauteng Sub-Regional House Price Indices show mediocrity in terms of house price performance to be widespread.

In April 2017, the FNB House Price Index showed some further acceleration in year-on-year growth compared with the March rate, after having gone through a “dip” late in 2016.

Examining the FNB House Price Indices for the country’s major regions, slowing price growth in the country’s recent star performing region, the Western Cape, continued in the 1st quarter of 2017.

The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index improved for the third consecutive quarter, rising by 3 points to 43 in 1Q2017.

Estimated 1st time buyer percentage sees a rise for the 2nd successive quarter.

In the 4th Quarter 2016 FNB Estate Agent Survey, buy-to-Let demand was a little slower than the prior quarter, keeping the level of recent years “moderate” by pre-2008 boom time standards, and our estimates point to little in the way of growth in secondary property ownership.

The FNB House Price Index for 2016 as a whole rose by 5%, slower than the 7.2% and 6.5% for 2014 and 2015 respectively.

While economic growth is expected to be mildly better in 2017, this is not yet expected to be enough to turn Real Household Disposable Income growth positive on a per capital basis.

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