Rash of Foreclosures in US Fail to Impact Shopping Centers

Posted On Friday, 29 February 2008 02:00 Published by
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Analysts of retail real estate have been expecting shopping centers in areas with the highest number of home foreclosures to be the most vulnerable to the slowing economy

But the correlation between foreclosure volume and retail-property loan delinquencies is weak.

Take the Detroit area, for example. It is the top market for home foreclosures, according to RealtyTrac Inc. It had just a 0.48% delinquency rate on commercial loans on its retail properties, according to data and analytics provider Trepp LLC. While that is above the national average of 0.14%, it is still way behind other markets.
 
The next three highest-ranked markets for home foreclosures -- Stockton, Calif.; Las Vegas; and Riverside, Calif. -- posted no delinquencies on retail loans. The highest delinquency rates among the top 100 foreclosure markets were No. 18 Indianapolis at 1.99% and No. 84 New Orleans at 1.96%.

This means that delinquencies on commercial loans for retail properties are episodic and widely dispersed. "People were saying that subprime [foreclosures] would kick in and retailers would be punished with less traffic and you'd see defaults," says Manus Clancy, a senior managing director at Trepp. "Our conclusion is that, if you believe that thesis, it's going to play out much more slowly than the subprime [implosion] did."


Publisher: The Wall Street Journal Online
Source: realestatejournal.com

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